November could take us one step closer to a Liberal Democrat – Labour coalition. The New Statesman reports that Labour could win all three seats being contested on 15 November. Two of the three seats are currently held by Labour, while it is highly possible that Labour could take Corby from the Conservatives.

A Labour gain would move the party just 3 seats short of a governing majority of 326. If Sinn Fein continues to abstain from the Westminster parliament – which according to Michael Crick is under doubt – a Liberal Democrat – Labour coalition is possible with the support of the Green Party, SDLP (the Labour Party’s sister in Northern Ireland), the Alliance MP (the Lib Dem’s sister party) and Plaid Cymru.

The coalition maths is as follows: –

Liberal Democrat – Labour coalition

Labour 259 (258 + Corby win)
Liberal Democrat 57
SDLP 3
Plaid Cymru 2
Alliance 1
Green 1
Total: 323

Against

Conservative 306
Democratic Unionist Party 8
Scottish National Party 6
Total: 320

A razer thin majority, but one that with a water tight coalition agreement and an early election could prove an good interim government. Unfortunately, such a coalition could create a constitutional crisis with the new government having to argue over the legality of the statutory instrument that set the 5 year electoral term. Interesting times…